Category: Members Only

Hi all,

Tuesday Stat Pointers

Perth

7:25 – El Terremoto – 15/8 @ Paddy Power – The selection looked to have benefited for wind-op and the switch to the David Pipe stable when 4^th of 14 in the Summer Plate. This is a step down in class for the 7-year-old who can win this if building on the promise of his Market Rasen reappearance. Trainer’s horses going well and he’s 7-20 35% +3.20 with his runners at Perth in the last 5-years.

Yarmouth

5:05 – Han Sol Berger – 9/4 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power – The 4-year-old has been knocking on the door on his last two starts.  Was beaten just ½ length in a Class 4 Sandown handicap 6-days ago and drops into Class 5 company here. Trainer Chris Wall is 3-10 30% +3.41. Quick turnaround but this looks a good opportunity for his first win since his two juvenile wins in 2017.

Worcester

6:05 – Capital Force – 11/4 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – A winner at Ludlow three starts back off 5lb lower. The selection was still upsides the eventual winner when making a mistake, on landing, at the last. A reproduction of that effort minus the mistake would see the 8-year-old go close here. Probably needs a good gallop to be seen at his best but there are three who like to go from the front so he should get it.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s the start of the Galway Festival today and I have two selections from there, as well as Windsor & Ayr.

Galway

5:20 – Authorized Art – 6/4 – Gen – The selection represents Willie Mullins who has won four of the last five running’s of this. The selection won on his first start of the trainer when running out the easy winner of a Punchestown maiden 75-days ago. Looks capable of much better and can win this.

8:40 – Think Positive – 3/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes – Like the first selection is trained by Willie Mullins who landed this NHF race in 2013 & 2017 and has a 45%-win strike rate with such runners at Galway in the past 5-years. Finished lame when favourite for a valuable bumper at the Punchestown Festival back in April. Has since finished runner -up at Kilbeggan.  Looks more than capable of landing a bumper before going hurdling.

Ayr

4:00 – Shoot For Gold – 15/8 @ Coral & William Hill –  The rain that fell at the track yesterday has turned the ground soft which should suit the selection. The 3-year-old makes his handicap debut here and could be ahead of his mark. An easy winner of a soft ground Windsor novice race last October. The son of Sea The Stars was then unable to handle the step up to Group 1 company when a well beaten 6^th of 9 in the Grand Criterium at Saint-cloud. The colt holds Great Voltiguer and St Leger entries so is clearly highly regarded by his trainer Saeed Bin Suroor, who won this race 12 months ago and has his horses in great form at present. He might not be up to St Leger class but looks on a decent enough mark here.

Windsor

7:50 – Embour – 6/1 @ Bet365 – The Windsor Sprint Series Final and a field of 16 have declared to go to post for this decent prize. The selection won over C&D two starts back. He then finished a good 4^th over 5f at Ascot 16-days ago and will appreciate the return to 6f. The 4-year-old is 5 wins from 8 runs 7 placed when racing within 17-days of his last start. Sean Levey whose 4 wins from 4 rides on the gelding is also back in the saddle.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I thought the easing of the ground would catch out Saturday’s selections and so it proved. Pontefract races on Sunday and there is competitive looking card at the Yorkshire track. Hopefully, the rain that fell in the area on Saturday will have eased the going significantly to aid the chances of my two selections.

Pontefract

3:55 – De Fede – 7/2 – Gen – The selection won a soft ground, 7f Listed race at Ascot last October and wasn’t disgraced when a 4 ½ length, 5th of 17 in a Group 2 at the same track two starts back. The form of that race looks solid as the 4th has since gone onto win a Group 1 at Newmarket and the 8th a Group 2 at the Curragh. The filly finished third here as 2-year-old so the track won’t be an issue and any rain will be in her favour.

4:30 – Diamond Dougal – 7/1 – Gen – Hasn’t been disgraced on any of his four starts this season, without looking like he would add to his four career wins. This is the selections first run at the course, but trainer Mick Channon has a good record with his handicappers here, having had 8 winners from 33 runners 24% +39.25 15 placed 45% since the start of 2015. The handicapper has given the 4-year-old a chance as he’s now dropped back to last years winning mark. The key to his chance is plenty of juice in the ground. If the going has eased and stall 8 doesn’t prove to much of an inconvenience, then the top weight has a good chance of adding to his win tally.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

The weather complicates today’s racing. It all depends where the rain falls and how much. For all three of Saturday’s selections soft ground would be an unknown.

Ascot

2:25 – Wings Of Time – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – Might have been slightly flattered when winning at the July Festival on his last start. However, he impressed that day and although he’s up 6lb, in a better race, he’s a 3-year-old on the upgrade and capable of following up if the rain doesn’t inconvenience the son of Invincible Spirit.

5:20 – Kiefer – 7/4 – Gen – The selection is an improving middle distance handicapper who’s improved with each of his four starts this season. Put in a career best when runner-up at Salisbury 31-days ago and remains on an upward curve even though he’s been put up 6lb for his Salisbury run. Soft ground would be a concern but apart from that is the one to beat on good or quicker.

Newmarket

4:00 – Swindler – 2/1 – Gen – This looks a match-up between Swindler & Pass The Vino. The latter won over C&D 16-days ago and despite a 5lb rise in the ratings is a lightly raced 3-year-old sprint handicapper. The Swindler is even more lightly raced, having just had the four career starts. The selection was an impressive winner, on quick ground, on his handicap debut at Ascot 15-days ago. The handicapper raised him 8lb for that win but it’s hard not to think there’s plenty more improvement in him and he can defy a mark of 90. As with the previous two selections rain softened ground would be an unknown.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Newbury

6:30 – Fantom Force – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – Shaped with promise in maiden & novice company before finishing 3^rd of 8 to the useful Making History on his nursery debut at Leicester 7-days ago. Drops back a furlong in distance although he shaped at Leicester as if he might stay a mile.

8:40 – Lightening Dance – 7/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – The selection ran well enough when coming up against a couple of improving 3-year-old’s when 3^rd of 9 at Windsor 24-days ago.  Ran up to her mark last time and is competitively handicapped on her best form. Trainer Amanda Perrett has had a quiet season but there have been more encouraging signs of late.

Sandown

4:25 – Quarry Beach – 9/4 @ Coral & Ladbrokes –  The 3-year-old has only had the five career starts and put in a career best when runner-up at Newbury 21-days ago. That was her first start for 250-days ago, so she’s entitled to have benefited from that run. Nudged up 1lb for that effort but the selection is unexposed in handicap company, seems to be going the right way and looks on a workable mark.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Leicester

7:15 – Volcanic Sky – 2/1 @ William Hill & Betway – Ran well from his wide draw in the Cumberland Plate at Carlisle 28-days ago. The 4-year-old didn’t have much cover during the race so in the circumstances ½ length third placed effort was a good one. Nudged up 1lb from that effort the 4-year-old remains on a competitive mark and is more than capable of winning this.

8:50 – Montalvan – 3/1 @ Bet365 or 11/4 @ William Hill –  The selection had been knocking on the door in handicaps on his recent starts and final got his head in front when making all to win at Ripon 4-days ago.  Has to carry a 6lb penalty to carry for his Ripon success but looks set to go close here.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Redcar

2:55 – First Dance – 10/3 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power –The 5-year-old ran better than his final finishing position at York, 9 days ago suggests. Held up, he wasn’t suited by the slow early gallop that day. He’s now dropped to 4lb below last years winning mark and looks sure to go well provided they go a decent gallop.

5:15 – The Armed Man – 9/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – The selection made it 2 wins from 7 runs over C&D when winning on his seasonal reappearance in April, off 1lb lower. He also won this race 12 months ago off 2lb higher.  He’s at his best on good to form ground so connections will be hoping the showers miss the course. Trainer Chris Fairhurst had a welcome winner at Doncaster last evening and he will be hoping for another one here.

There won’t be any selections on Monday or Tuesday, but I will be back on Wednesday morning.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Newbury

4:45 – Red Stralight – 2/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – The selection, a former C&D winner, handles ease in the ground, will find this easier. back against her own sex, then when 8th of 28 in the Royal Hunt Cup. She’s handles some ease in the ground, is consistent and shouldn’t be far away in the 1m handicap even under top weight.

Cartmel

2:30 – Beeno – 4/1 – Gen – The veteran showed he was no back number when winning over C&D 22-days ago. That was the selections 4^th win at the track, all but one of his career wins have come here. That was his first win when soft wasn’t in the going description so any ease in the ground will be welcomed. Up 4lb but remains on a competitive mark based on his back form.

Haydock

8:30 – Lydiate Lady – 11/2 @ Coral & William Hill – The 7-year-old seemed to be running into form when putting in a seasonal best when 4^th of 8 over C&D 28-days ago. The handicapper has dropped the mare 3lb since that win and she now races off a 10lb lower mark than for her last win back in April 2018. Best form has come with some juice in the ground so connections will be hoping  the going is on the easy side,

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Newmarket

5:45 – Junoesque – 11/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes –  Plenty of inform fillies in this 1m 2f handicap, none more so than the selection. The 5-year-old has been in excellent form this season winning three of her four starts, including the last two. She’s won on good to firm & soft so seems ground versatile and the manner of her Windsor win off 5lb lower 19-days ago suggests she might not have stopped winning yet.

Pontefract

8:35 – Flying Raconteur – 9/2 @ Paddy Power & Bet365 –  The selection returned from a 568-day break with an eye-catching third at Redcar two starts back.  Ran just as well when 4^th of 14 at Ripon 11-days ago. Has shaped on both starts as if the step up to 1m 2f could suit and has to be high on the shortlist for a trainer whose runners continue to run well.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Hamilton

2:10 – Arnold – 4/1 – Gen – The selection looks the one to beat based on his head second at Newcastle 44-days ago, although light concern that we haven’t seen him 44-days, Twice a winner on good to firm, the last of those wins came at Beverley off 1lb lower. Trainer Ann Duffield’s handicap runners in the first two in the betting are always worth noting as she’s had 27 winners from 85 runners 32% +26.13 A/E 1.22 44 placed 52% since the start of 2015.

Chepstow

2:30 – Captain Sedgewick – 6/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – The 5-year-old won this race last year off 1lb and looks set for a bold bid for back to back wins. Both of her career wins have come in July, so this really does like her time of year.  Shaped well enough when 5^th of 16, beaten just 1 ½ lengths, at Lingfield 19-days ago to think she comes into the race in decent form. That Lingfield run was her first for 220-days.

Cheers

John