Author: John Burke

Hi all,

It was a case of seconditis yesterday at Fontwell. I thought Quel Destin was set to win but was just outstayed by a stronger stayer on the day.

Today’s three selections all race at Wolverhampton. It’s my day off on Tuesday so hopefully we can go out on a winner on Monday.

Wolverhampton

7:00 – Concierge – 4/1 @ Bet365 – Has been running consistently well on the all-weather since joining his present yard without winning. Ran well to finish 3^rd of 7 at Kempton 5-days ago. Silvestre De Sousa who is 2 wins from 3 rides returns to the saddle and he should ensure that the 4-year-old goes close again.

7:30 – Cottonopolis – 6/1 @ Bet365 – The 3-year-old ran well from the front at Chelmsford 15-days ago but just couldn’t match the pace of the two who finished in front him in the final furlong. The step up to 1m 4f should suit and hopefully he can get his own way out in front.

8:00 – Embrace The Moment – 9/1 @Bet365 –  Maybe a nine race maiden but she’s only had the two starts on the all-weather so remains unexposed on the synthetics. Having just her second start for trainer Ian Williams she ran well to finish 4^th of 12 over C&D 35-days ago. The cheekpieces are applied today and they could eke out the improvement needed for her to gain her first career win. Trainer has a 19%-win strike rate with his runners racing in the first time cheekpieces.

See you on Wednesday.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Fontwell

3:20 – Quel Destin – 3/1 @ Paddy Power & Unibet – Quel Destin showed at Sandown, that he’s very effective on heavy ground now 2 wins from 2 runs, when winning the Listed Contenders Hurdle 22-days ago. Stamina for today’s 2m 3f distance must be taken on trust but trainer Paul Nicholls knows what’s needed to win the race 3 winners from 11 runners 5 placed since 2011.

4:20 – The Raven’s Return – 6/1 @ Bet365 – Won his maiden over C&D back in May but has proven form on heavy won a Sandown bumper on the ground and was 2^nd of 10 on heavy at Wincanton two starts back. The 7-year-old showed he remains in form when finishing a close third at Warwick 32-days ago. Trainer going through a quiet spell 21 runners & 33 days since his last winner, but the gelding looks capable of going close on track that suits.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It was a late decision to add Springfield Fox to the Friday selections, but it paid off as he turned out to be the sole winner on the day.

Newcastle

2:10 – What’s the Scoop – 11/2 @ Bet365 – Islightly raced over fences for a 10-year-old.  Finished runner-up over C&D two starts back and then followed up with a win again over C&D.  Up 6lb, but he goes well on heavy ground and could be up to defying his new mark.

3:55 – Thor De Cerisy – 5/1 @ Bet365 – Made all to win a heavy ground maiden hurdle over C&D two starts back. Ran too bad to be true on his handicap debut at Ffos Las 16-days later. Has had a wind-op since so if the procedure has had the desired effect, he can hopefully build on the promise of his win. Trainer Michael Scudamore’s last three runners have won, and he had a double on Friday.

Kempton

4:10 – Keep Wondering – 7/2 @ Bet365 – Left some moderate hurdling form well behind, when winning on his chase debut at Ffos Las 23-days ago. Has been raised 10lb for that success and faces a different type of test today on a sharper track and likely much better ground. However, he had plenty in hand last time and is a handicap chaser on the upgrade. Can win again if the sounder surface isn’t an inconvenience.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Fighting Temeraire saved the day yesterday but the other two selections ran poorly with Point Break very weak in the pre-race betting at Sedgefield.

Dundalk

6:30 – Nordic Passage – 5/1 @ Paddy Power – The 5-year-old came from behind to win a shade comfortably over C&D 21-days ago. The handicapper has raised him 7lb for that win, but he should remain competitive from a decent draw in stall 7.

8:00 – Silk Cravat – 13/2 @ Ladbrokes – Could have fared better with the draw (13) but has run well on his last two starts shaping as a return to winning ways isn’t too far away. The previous C&D winner is now 2lb lower than his last winning mark and Colin Keane has been booked for the ride.

Exeter

2:15 – Springfield Fox – 2/1 @ Paddy Power – The selection a three-time point winnerleft behind some moderate hurdle form when making an impressive debut over fences at Chepstow 21-day ago.  The handicapper has raised him 10lb for that win but that shouldn’t stop the 7-year-old, if in the same form as last time.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It’s more up and down than a rollercoaster at present. The win strike rate has dropped but the profit has gone up in recent weeks. Given the average odds have increased it’s not surprising that the losing runs are getting longer.

Sedgefield

5:03 – Point Break – 4/1 @ Bet365 – The 6-year-old has run with encouragement in novice hurdles last season including finishing runner-up to useful novice chaser Rouge Vif at Newcastle last January. Disappointing on handicap debut in October but was in the process of running a big race, travelling like the winner when making a race ending mistake three out.  Was backed into favouritism that day and the market support he received suggests connections think they have a well handicapped horse on their hands.

Chelmsford

6:00 – Fen Breeze – 11/2 @ Bet365 – Won over C&D on her racecourse debut at this meeting 12 months ago. Not really built on that since moving in handicap company. Although she has run respectably on her last two starts at Wolverhampton & Kempton, since returning from a 189-day absence.  The selection has been short in the market on both starts since her return to action and looks capable of taking advantage of her current mark.

6:30 – Fighting Temeraire – 10/3 @ Bet365 – A C&D winner back in December off 1lb lower. Found 6f to short at Kempton 31-days ago. The return to 7f is very much in his favour and granted a decent pace to chase can go in again in the hands of Adam Kirby.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Georgia Dobie changed running style on Miss Elsa and it paid dividands as the filly gave the service a tidy winner at BOG 11/2.

Two selections from Southwell today.

Southwell

6:00 – Poeta Brasileiro – 5/2 @ Bet365 – Wonover C&D in October, off 4lb lower and ran a close-up 2^nd back over C&D month later. Now 2lb lower than for the latter of those runs. Dissappointed at Chelmsford 9-days ago but capable of bouncing back at a venue that suits.

8:00 – Caged Lightning – 14/1 @ Paddy Power – Has returned from a 506-day absence in decent enough form, finished runner-up at Wolverhampton and didn’t have the easiest of passages when 4^th at Kempton 14-days ago. The 10-year-old won twice over C&D back in 2015 so the return to the fibresand should be fine. Capable of going close, albeit has been weak in the market this morning.

I’m taking a day off on Wednesday so see you on Thursday.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Lingfield

2:00 – Miss Elsa – 5/1 @ Bet365 – Twice a winner on the all-weather since October, firstly at Wolverhampton and then over C&D three starts back.  Hasn’t been disgraced on either of her last two starts where the pace of the race hasn’t suited her hold up style of running.  Remains on a winnable mark when all the cards fall right.

4:15- First Link – 5/1 @ Bet365 – All three of the mare’s career wins have come here at Lingfield, including over C&D. Has been shaping like there is another win in her off her present mark. Looked to traveling smoothly enough when not getting the clearest of passages here 9-days ago but didn’t find as much as her jockey was expecting and had to settle for a close 4^th. The 5-year-old gets the first-time blinkers today and shouldn’t be far away if the change of headgear has the desired effect.

Kempton

6:00 – Penarth Pier – 7/1 @ Bet365 – Had a wide draw to contend with, when returning from a 56-day break over C&D last week. Better drawn in stall three today and if adopting her normal prominent style of racing could be suited by the pace of the race. Should be sharper for last week’s run and is 2 wins from 4 runs 3 placed when racing within 10-days of her last start.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Market Rasen has joined Exeter on the abandoned list. That leaves us with just Kempton, which must pass 9am inspection, and Navan.

Kempton

4:30 – Venture – 11/1 @ Bet365 & Paddy Power – The pair that interested me most in this 6f handicap have been drawn in the two widest stalls. The selection won a C&D novice in November but has managed to get no luck with the draw on his two subsequent starts in handicap company, firstly when 5^th of 12 at Lingfield and then when 4^th of 11 over C&D 22-days ago. Saw his race out well last time and shapes like he’s a better horse than his rating of 73 suggests.

Navan

2:55 – Blanketontheground – 5/1 – Gen – The mare put in a career best on her handicap debut when 2^nd of 12 to Our Roxane at Gowran Park last month.  The winner has subsequently gone onto finish runner-up in a valuable mares’ handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. Step up to 2m 4f should be within range stamina wise and she shouldn’t be far away at the finish, if building on her last run.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Haydock

3:50 – Silva Eclipse – 13/2 @Bet365 – The selection beat 8 rivals over C&D at the last meeting.  Best three RPR’s have come on heavy ground, including two here. The 7-year-old was beaten a neck in this race 12 months ago (good) Races off 4lb higher than for his last win but must be respected as he clearly relishes the mud.

Ascot

4:10 – Maypole Class – 7/1 @Bet365 – The selection has been steadily progressive over hurdles this season winning on heavy at Lingfield in December before finishing a close-up 2^nd of 11 at Wincanton last month. Up 5lb for that effort and a further rise in distance but looks to be an improver and will be well suited to the rain softened ground.

Wincanton

3:23 – Midnightreferendum – 6/1 @ Bet365 – Put in a career best when winning a handicap hurdle at Warwick last April. Down the field on her return here in November before running much better when 3^rd of 15 behind Dame De Compagnie in a better race at Cheltenham on her last start 63-days ago. Step up in distance should suit and the mare has gone well fresh in the past.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Back with a profit courtesy of Caltex on landed a bit of a gamble at Leicester. Granted a 10p rule 4 to the advised price but still a healthy return.

Storm Dennis is about to hit our shores. Today’s racing should be fine although there must be a big doubt about the Sandown card taking place given parts of the track were waterlogged yesterday afternoon. With that in mind I’m going back to the all-weather for today’s three selections.

Lingfield

4:40 – King Athelstan – 10/3 @ Bet365 – Won over C&D two starts back and almost made it back to back win when beaten a nose into second 13-days ago. The 5-year-old didn’t get the clearest of runs at the furlong mark and that was the difference between finishing first and second. Nudged up a 1lb but if remaining in the same form can claim a second course win.

Dundalk

5:00 – Anythingyouwantobe – 4/1 @ Bet365 – The selection is lightly raced, just the nine career starts andremains unexposed on the all-weather. Put in a much better effort to finish 4^th of 14 over C&D last month. Didn’t get the best of passages at the start but was finishing her race off well. Off the same mark today and should go close.

7:30 – Rock Of Aidan – 11/4 @ William Hill – Gained his first career win at the ninth attempt when winning over C&D three weeks ago. The handicapper has reacted by raising the 5-year-old 12lb but he’s a big gelding who will be able to carry the weight and after his last win the trainer Ado McGuinness told the Racing Post “We’ll have plenty of fun with him during the summer. We’ll probably jump a hurdle with him. He’s a lot of ability”. His new mark of 60 looks more than workable.

Cheers

John