Author: John Burke

Hi all,

It’s great to be back. After a 76-day absence horse racing returns to England today. 

Ok, it’s behind closed doors but given I don’t think we’ll see large crowds at any sporting fixture for some time, it’s better than nothing.

I’m chomping on the bit, as I’m sure you are, for what looks a great week’s action culminating in three great days racing at Newmarket from Friday to Sunday.

I’m sure you’re as excited as I am about the return to racing but I think it will pay to err on the side of caution when it comes to betting in the first few days of the sports resumption.

It’s a bumper ten race card at Newcastle and all the action gets started behind closed doors at 1pm.

Just the one selection for you today.

Newcastle

6:15 – Valyrian Steel – 11/4 @ Bet365 –  Valyrian Steel, a son of Frankel, makes his racecourse debut and looks capable of making it a winning one. The three-year-old has been subject to some encouraging Newmarket gallop reports. Trainer Roger Varian also has a healthy win strike rate with his 3-year-old’s in non-handicap races at the course – 11 winners from 25 runners 44% +14 20 placed 80% in the past three years.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

We are now living unprecedented times. Racing in Britain & Ireland continues albeit behind closed doors. For how long, its anyone’s guess. However, the cancellation of Aintree’s Grand National suggests some of the big meetings won’t be taking place over the next few months.

Although due to my underlying health condition I am now in self isolation for three months it will be business as usual until the sport stops completely.

Two selections from Taunton and oh boy could we do with a winner.

Taunton

3:25 – Hollywood Ken – 4/1 @ Bet365 – Lightly raced of late, the 7-year-old has run respectably over hurdles on his last two starts. Latterly when 3^rd of 8 to Saturday’s Uttoxeter win Main Fact. First start over fences today but looks on a winnable mark if he takes to the larger obstacles.

4:00 – Stage Summit – 13/2 @ Bet365 – Seemed to lose his way for Ben Pauling but made a promising start for his new yard when 3^rd of 10 at Exeter 14-days ago.  Back up in trip in his favour and the 7-year-old is on a workable mark if building on his Exeter promise.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

As I said yesterday it’s amazing how quickly things can change in this game. No winner from six runners in the last three days and suddenly you are on a bit of a losing run. 

Hereford

3:20 – Demachine – 5/2 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – Is getting better with racing. Last time out ran well for a long way and only gave best between the final two hurdles when 3^rd of 12 at Warwick 37-days ago. That was just the 6-year-old’s third career start and he remains open to open to more improvement now going handicapping.

Southwell

4:00 – City Never Sleeps – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – Clearly hasn’t been the easiest to keep sound in recent years given he’s only been seen on the racecourse three times in the last three years. Ran much better on his second start from his recent absence when runner-up at Catterick 20-days ago. Potentially well handicapped on his C&D second back in 2018 and can hopefully go close here.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It was sad to see one of Saturday’s selections Legel Eyes have to be put down. Yes, your either up or down in this game.

Let’s hope it’s more up than down for today’s two selections.

Carlisle

3:35 – Le Rocher – 7/2 @ Bet365 – The veteran has returned from an 11-month absence in good form finishing runner-up to Gala Ball at Wincanton and 3^rd of 10 to Deise Aba at Sandown 43-days ago. Seemed to stay 3m well enough last time and his four best RPR’s have come on heavy ground.

Market Rasen

3:55 – Compadre – 7/2 @ Paddy Power & BetVictor – Has plenty of form here, including two wins here over fences last season of 2 ½ f further than today’s 2m 3f distance. Returns from a wind-op today and back over fences and if the breathing op has had the desired effect can go well again on a track that suits.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Three days down, one day to go. Min (5/2) did the business on Thursday. Floressa was never really in the race she got into a real sweat before the race and probably found the ground just too testing.

Still a 50%-win strike rate at the Cheltenham Festival is pretty good going and I’m delighted with the week. Fingers crossed we can keep the winning run going on Friday.

Cheltenham

2:50 – Latest Exhibition – 4/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – Has some of the best form coming into the race. The 7-year-old stayed on well to win a slowly run 2m 6f Grade 1 at Leopardstown last time. Shaped that day like he would be better suited by stronger run race and step up in distance. Thyme Hill has done nothing wrong and comes into the race unbeaten on three hurdle starts. However, trainer Philip Hobbs’ runners haven’t run that well this week. In the circumstance’s Latest Exhibition will do for me.

4:10 – Staker Wallace – 6/1 @ Coral – I must be a bit crazy going for one in the Foxhunters but the Enda Bolger trained horse has been one of the talking horses on the Cheltenham festival Preview circuit over the last few weeks. The 9-year-old won a point to point on his last start and is the least exposed horse in the race. Granted Derek O’Connor has opted for the other J P McManus runner Minella Rocco but Jamie Codd isn’t a bad substitute.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

There was a pulsating finish to the RSA Novices Chase with Champ coming from a seemingly impossible position at the last to win. The second selection Queens Brook also a ran a cracker to finish 3^rd in the Bumper.

Another small profit banked. Going to Cheltenham for selections this week has paid off so far with two wins from four selections. Can we continue the profitable run on Thursday?

Cheltenham

2:50 – Min – 5/2 @ Bet365 – A Plus Tard won the novices handicap chase here 12 months ago and last time out beat Chacun Pour Soi in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown. He’s the up and coming second season chaser. However, I’m taking him on with Min. The 9-year-old is 0-3 at the track but has finished runner-up in the Supreme, behind Altior and occupied that same position behind Altior in the 2018 Champion Chase. Only 5^th in that race last year but wasn’t beaten far. Runner-up to Chacun Pour Soi at the Dublin Racing Festival over 2m 1f but he’s better over further now. His form figures over 2m 4f are 12111. First run over 2m 5f but he should stay today’s extra furlong.

4:50 – Floressa – 8/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – Trained by Nicky Henderson looks the best of the home team here and she impressed when winning a listed mares’ novices’ hurdle at Newbury in November. She wasn’t suited by the slow pace of the race and was hampered on the run in when third to Lady Buttons at Doncaster 47-days ago. Best form so far has come on good to soft, so connections will be hoping the course dries out. This has been the plan and she must have a good chance if the ground isn’t too testing.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Well playing Cheltenham yesterday paid off as Epatante took the Champion Hurdle in convincing fashion.  You’re only as good as your last day in the tipster game and I’m playing Cheltenham again on Wednesday.

As with yesterday it’s a case of looking for profits from those at the front end of the market.

Cheltenham

2:10 – Champ – 7/2 @ Bet365 – Is many pundits lay of the week. He’s not mine though. A good winner of his first two starts before falling two out here in the Dipper novices chase with the race at his mercy. Horses running in Grade 1 chases at the festival who fell on their last start are 1 winner from 22 runners 5% – 17 6 placed 27%. That said he’s a class horse who can win this if his jumping holds up. 

5:30 – Queens Brook – 8/1 @ Bet365 – Won on her debut under rules at Gowran Park 25-days ago.  She probably didn’t beat the strongest of fields, that day, but the time was a good one for a bumper. After her win connections seemed to suggest Cheltenham wasn’t on the radar so it’s interesting, she takes her place here.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

I normally swerve big festival’s like this for consistent profits but this year I’m going to put up a couple selections from each day of Cheltenham. We shall know at the end of the week whether it was the right decision or not.

Cheltenham

1:30 – Asterion Forlonge – 5/2 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes – Made it 2 from 2 over hurdles when running outan impressive winner of a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month. The 6-year-old looks a strong stayer so a strongly run 2m on soft ground should be ideal. Has jumped slightly to his right on both starts over hurdles which he can’t afford to do in a race like this. Apart from that he looks a rock-solid contender.

3:30 – Epatante – 11/4 @ Bet365 & Ladbrokes – A Grade 1 bumper winner when trained in France. The mare has won four of her five starts since joining the Nicky Henderson stable but her one poor run came in the mare’s novice hurdle at last years festival. Looked a future Champion Hurdle winner when winning the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton over Christmas. If there is a star in the race it’s her. On flat track I doubt any of these can touch her but but will she get up the hill on soft ground?

Cheers

John

Hi all,

Both selections ran well on Saturday although neither looked like they would their respective races.  Selections from Naas & Southwell today.

Naas

4:50 – Court Maid – 5/1 @ Coral & Ladbrokes – Put in some good efforts in novice hurdle company last season including when an 11^th length 6^th of 16 behind Honeysuckle in a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse last April. Put in here best effort of this season last time out when 3^rd of 12 back at the same venue 15-days ago. That was a return to form by the mare who gets the first time cheekpieces today.

Southwell

3:55 – Irish Odyssey – 11/2 @ Bet365 – A soft ground bumper winner at Fontwell hasn’t had many goes over hurdles but shaped like he can win races in the sphere when runner-up at Sedgefield on Boxing Day. Clipped heels with a rival and unseated his rider at the 4^th on his handicap hurdle debut at Huntingdon 44-days ago. Millie Wonnacott takes off a useful 7lb and hopefully that will enable the selection to gain his first win over hurdles.

I’m taking Monday off to prepare for Cheltenham so there won’t be any selections tomorrow so let’s hope we can go into the Cheltenham Festival with a winner.

Cheers

John

Hi all,

It seems disappointing not have a winner yesterday as Chairmanoftheboard could only finish runner-up at Chelmsford on Friday. Two selections today from Ayr & Hereford.

Ayr

2:30 – Off The Hook – 9/2 – Gen – The mares sole win in 16 starts came in maiden hurdle over C&D last January. Ran when 4^th of 13 at Newcastle two starts back although not as good when occupying that same position at Doncaster 17-days ago. Now 2lb lower than at Newcastle and gets the first time cheekpieces which will hopefully eke out the improvement need to win this. Trainer Nick Alexander is 2 winners from 4 runners with horses racing in the first time cheekpieces in that past two years and also 3 winners from 9 runners in the past 14-days which is another positive.

Hereford

4:05 – Baby King – 9/2 @ Betway or 4/1 – Gen – Isn’t the force he once was but the 11-year-old who fell in this race 12 months ago before bouncing back to win at Ludlow last April. Started this season with a good 2^nd of 8 at Aintree, although below that form on his last two starts. Now 3lb below his last winning mark and capable of winning, if returning to form today which he could easily do.

Fingers crossed we can get back among the winners today.

Cheers

John